imafan26
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Hog Corn cycle

Asia and parts of Europe are dealing with the newest swine flu epidemic. African swine flu = pig ebola. China has had to cull almost 2 million pigs (that is about 50% of their output) The meat is still edible and they have frozen pork now, but once that runs out pork prices will begin to soar. There is no cure for the disease except culling of infected herds and killing off wild boars. Korea has started aerial shooting of wild boars on the border and P.I. has had a case of the flu in one of their farms and are trying to contain the disease before it spreads. Pork from countries with the disease should not be exported to countries that are disease free since the virus can remain in the pork meat. The disease is limited to pigs and pig relatives, but it can also be transmitted by direct contact, equipment, and even clothing.

On the other hand corn prices have dropped and corn producers need to find other markets since the demand for corn for pig food has dropped and even selling more corn for chicken feed will not be able to take up the slack . Feed for 1 pig = 30 chickens. More corn available for chicken feed than their is demand for it, and hog disease would cause people to raise and eat more chickens. There would be downward pressure on chicken prices because the cheap feed = farmers increasing chicken production. Increased demand for chicken because of lack of or high price of pork would offset the downward pressure on chicken prices. How that works out depends on the demand for chicken by consumers. Chicken farmers can increase their flocks, but it would require additional investment in chicken houses, equipment, etc so it is not going to be a big increase initially and the farmers would not want to put in a lot of infrastructure unless the demand can be sustained. If they increase too much and flood the market with too many chickens that would again put downward pressure on prices.

The U.S. is free of the disease and in the future may be able to export pork to places that have had to cull herds. This may drive local prices up.

The middle of the country had record rainfall. Corn crops were either ruined by rain or missed their planting date so corn feed may be more expensive. I would still be wary of buying corn from China given their track record. Smaller U.S. corn crop. Corn instead of something else being used to make ethanol instead of food = higher gas prices.

California, the Northwest, and Southwest had drier than usual conditions. This will also affect the cost of other commodities. Farmers and ranchers may cull their herds again because of drought or high feed costs. It leads to a short term drop in prices as more animals are brought to market but will in the long run cause prices to rise later because the breeding herds are smaller.

Translation: Food and gas prices are going up again.

Aren't you glad you have a garden to grow some of your own food?

Unfortunately, the extreme weather will probably mean more crop failures again and some seeds will not be available and seed prices may also be on the rise.

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rainbowgardener
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"Aren't you glad you have a garden to grow some of your own food?"

I am. However, it turns out I am as affected by climate change as any real farmer. Of the four growing seasons I have lived in Chattanooga area, two of them have had extended periods of record breaking heat and drought. This year I ended up pulling all my summer plants early and not replanting anything until mid Oct. So I had very little summer crop and no fall crop. (I do have a bunch of seedlings sprouted now to over-winter).

I am working on adapting to conditions. I will be adding over 500 gallons of rainwater storage and I am working on rethinking when I plant things. But it was an eye-opener. Growing a lot of my own food was part of my coping strategy, but now I understand it won't necessarily be easy.

imafan26
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Posts: 13947
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:32 am
Location: Hawaii, zone 12a 587 ft elev.

True. I did the same thing. It was so hot June-September that once I harvested the garden, I let it go fallow. My water rates also went up so it was less affordable to throw more water on a poor crop. I did have to water to sustain the rest, but I did not actually water any more than I usually do. I found that if the plants were not under potted, they could be mulched and trained to get along better with every other day deep watering. The grass got nothing except runoff from the sprinkler in the border beds. Downside to that is that while warm season grasses go dormant in summer and can get along with less water, they don't compete as well with weeds.

I have been growing heat resistant and drought resistant plants for a long time. Except for Charger which I grew because it is resistant to TYLCV, the tropical plants can handle even hotter conditions.
Ginger, peppers (grown on the east side of the house to avoid afternoon sun), sweet potato, chard, perpetual spinach, tropical corn, hyotan, taro, eggplant, beans, and citrus can take it. Charger is not a heat resistant tomato so it did have fruit and blossom drop when the temp > 90 degrees F. and BER. I could have avoided the heat related issues with a heat tolerant variety. Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of heat and TYLCV tolerant tomatoes. I do have to water every day and I did have to up pot a few plants so they would not wilt at midday.

The rainy season has started and now I can back off watering to every three days. I do have to remember to go out and check the plants because I may still have to water plants if the rain is not enough.



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